Notícias e acontecimentos:
As widely anticipated, the SNB meeting earlier confirmed that the 3M LIBOR target band was to be held at 0.00-0.75% with a 0.25% mid-point. However, the accompanying statement and indeed subsequent press conference by Governor Hildebrand struck a distinctly more dovish tone than markets had perhaps anticipated. In it, the SNB said they see signs of a “significant” Swiss slowdown ahead, and that their inflation forecasts for 2012 and 2013 were slightly lower. Hildebrand himself reiterated afterwards that Swiss inflation would remain low in 2011 and 2012, something which is certainly playing out in the latest data. The November reading for Swiss CPI revealed a mere a mere 0.2% YoY increase – well off its March-April peak of 1.4%. Although there was also mention of the fact the SNB would act if needed to fight deflation threats, we feel that the reality of currency intervention is not yet close to a return. Referring to the currency, the SNB also acknowledged that although the franc gained on European tension and concerns of late, worsening tension would have a “detrimental” impact on Swiss growth. In spite of this caution, we still feel the CHF offers a dual appeal of safe-haven asset as well as an impressive recovery prospect, and therefore anticipate CHF to go into 2011 as one of the outperformers to watch. In other economic releases, Swedish industrial production hit an impressive 1.8% QoQ, 5.8% YoY – far exceeding the analyst estimates of 0.9% QoQ, 5.0% YoY. Seeing yet another spectacular data point out of Sweden appears to justify the central bank's action yesterday to hike for a second consecutive meeting to 1.25%. Along with the CHF, we like the prospects for SEK going into 2011, and expect further hikes in spring. It is of course obligatory to mention that the EU summit in Brussels begins today; although we have little expectation that meaningful conclusions or decisions will be forthcoming. Luxembourg's PM Juncker is featured in a newspaper article today suggesting that a common Eurobond would be a good response to the Eurozone's problems, so it is likely this proposal is high on the agenda. Getting other members to universally back such a scheme will, however, be tough.
Pontos Chave de hoje (hora GMT): 10:00 EUR Final HICP, % m/m (y/y) Nov; exp: 0.1 (1.9), prev: 0.4 (1.9) 13:30 USD Initial jobless claims, thous 11-Dec; exp: 425, prev: 421 13:30 USD Continuing claims, thous 4-Dec; exp: 4115, prev: 4086 13:30 USD Housing starts, thous saar Nov; exp: 550, prev: 519 13:30 USD Building permits, thous saar Nov; exp: 560, prev: 550 15:00 USD Philly Fed mfg index Dec; exp: 15.0, prev: 22.5 |
O risco de hoje: GbpUsd Plenty of heavy trading in the 24 hours since the 2-week uptrend broke down and we spotted the bearish engulfing candlestick on the daily chart – indeed it’s taken less than 24 hours for GBPUSD to plunge over 200 pips. We are now firmly focused on the more vulnerable downside; first support is eyed at last night’s low 1.5531, then 1.5650 pivot, 1.5485 (30 Nov low), 1.5450 (15 Sep low), 1.5385 (200-day moving average), 1.5297 (7 Sep low) and 1.5122 (21 Jul low). On the topside, buyers are expected around 1.5650-55 former support, 1.5770 (back side of former 2-week uptrend), 1.5815 (post-FOMC rebound high), 1.5950-5 (last seen 23 Nov), then the psychologically important 1.6000. UsdJpy The long-held 82.35 – 84.40 range in USDJPY looked to be under real threat late in yesterday’s NY session, as the surge of demand punctured our 84.40 ceiling, taking the pair to a high of 84.51. The momentum clearly wasn’t there on that first attempt however, and we have since pared back lower, but this breach does make us ponder more seriously the possible bullish scenarios ahead. If the pair can return to 84.40 and break higher, there is the intriguing possibility of resurrecting an inverse head and shoulders pattern that we suggested back at the turn of the week. This pattern has a neckline at 84.40 (so the break higher would be a trigger to go long), with a target around 86.45. Cluttering the route to that target would be the resistance levels at 85.40 (24 Sep high) and 85.90 (19 Aug, 30 Aug & 16-17 Sep highs), but then the next pocket of supply is not seen until 86.90 (2 Aug high). Nevertheless, until a break-out occurs, it is far more prudent to look for range trading opportunities (i.e. selling ahead of 84.40) and looking for a return towards 82.85 (Tuesday’s low) and 82.35 (7 Dec low and range floor). Should we get a break lower, next supports lie at 81.65 (12 Nov low), 80.60 (strong support from the beginning of November), 80.24 (31 Oct low), then 79.75 –the all-time low from 1995. UsdChf Once again this week we’ve seen a flag pattern go to waste after an ugly reversal; on this occasion the losses were negligible (12 pips) as the downside extension USDCHF demonstrated on Tuesday had allowed us to trail our stop to approximately where we got in (see yesterday’s report). We now revert to a neutral bias in the short term as the pair is likely to wash around into the Christmas period; first resistance on the topside is 0.9725 (3 & 6 Dec lows and former support), then 0.9850 (13 Dec high), 0.9950 (3 Dec high) and 1.0000. On the downside, buyers now likely to lurk at Tuesday’s low 0.9562, the 0.9540 level first established on 18 Oct and re-tested on 5 Nov, before the massively important all-time lows of 0.9464. |
Resistência e Suporte:
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