FOREX MARKETS AUD/USD Bearish unless above 1.0082.

Initial gains made last week were not maintained. A decline later in the week took the Aussie back to almost unchanged levels. While this lack of net movement does highlight a degree of indecision it is the upside rejection that is the most important feature of the chart going into this week. The outlook is therefore bearish unless there is a move above 1.0082. The immediate downside target is .9804, which is the two-week low, with a move below that point targeting .9752, the seven-week lows, followed by the Fibonacci 38% retracement of the gains since August (.8770 – 1.0258) at .9690.

Cat Davey

The outlook changes to bullish if there is a move above 1.0082, which is the halfway mark of the decline from three weeks ago. Next resistance is them at 1.0203 followed by December’s highs of 1.0258.

RES: 1.0082 1.0203 1.0258
SUP: .9804 .9752 .9690

EUR/USD
Bullish unless below 1.3368.

Limited selling early in the week for the euro was met with fresh buying interest latter in the week. This demand took the euro to a second positive weekly performance in a row – for the first time since October – and also to recover more than half of the fall from November highs (1.4283 – 1.2859). However the week closed at the highs signalling overbought extremes. This leaves potential for some selling this week but any dips are expected to attract buying interest. The outlook is therefore bullish unless there is a move below 1.3368. The immediate upside objective is a broader 62% correction point of 1.3739, with a move beyond that point targeting nine-week high of 1.3788, and towards, but probably not as high as, 1.3877 which is half of the net decline from eleven weeks ago.

A move below 1.3368, which is Wednesday’s low, would be a bearish signal. First downside target would be last week’s lows of 1.3244, followed by 1.3133, which is half the net gains from two weeks ago.

RES: 1.3739 1.3788 1.3877
SUP: 1.3368 1.3244 1.3133

GBP/USD
Bullish unless below 1.5835.

Last week sterling yielded a second consecutive positive week and a third positive week from the last four. Although the move to the most bullish levels for eight weeks was seen at the beginning of the week, the correction from overbought extremes was limited. Despite technical signals remaining overbought the outlook remains bullish unless there is a move below 1.5835. The immediate upside objective is last week's high of 1.6061, with next resistance at 1.6158, which is the nine-week peak, then November’s high of 1.6300.

A move below 1.5835, last week's lows, would be a bearish signal. First support would then be half of the net gains from two weeks ago at 1.5695, or even 1.5524 which is the open from two weeks ago.

RES: 1.6061 1.6158 1.6300
SUP: 1.5835 1.5695 1.5524

USD/JPY
Bearish unless above 83.69.

The trend of lower highs continued last week as investors sold bounces. However negative momentum was slow and the net result on the week was prices ending with little change. This week the overall negative bias is albeit cautious as long as the yen stays below 83.69. First support is at 81.85 followed by the January lows of 80.93 and then potentially as far as the November low of 80.23.

A move above 83.69 would be a bullish signal. First resistance is at 84.00 then the high for November at 84.42.

RES: 83.69 84.00 84.42
SUP: 81.85 80.93 80.23