Analise 09/06/2011

Currency Tech

EURUSD  R 2: 1.4900  R 1: 1.4710  CURRENT: 1.4621 S 1: 1.4450  S 2: 1.4305 GBPUSD  R 2: 1.6545  R 1: 1.6495  CURRENT: 1.6430 S 1: 1.6285  S 2: 1.6245 USDJPY  R 2: 81.35  R 1: 81.00  CURRENT: 80.08 S 1: 80.00  S 2: 79.55 AUDUSD  R 2: 1.0875  R 1: 1.0795  CURRENT: 1.06432 S 1: 1.0585  S 2: 1.0510

Market Brief

EURUSD moved to one-month highs of 1.4632 on speculation ECB may signal possible rate hike next month in today’s interest rate decision although keeping it unchanged today at 1.25%, GBPUSD recovered to 1.6435 highs before today’s BOE rate decision although no changes are expected and the BOE emphasizes on inflationary pressures and growth expectations being necessary before any rate hikes. The Pound dropped yesterday after Moody’s said the UK could lose its AAA rating citing weak growth as markets remain cautious over the Sterling. NZDUSD moved up to highs of 0.8246 as the RBNZ kept rates on hold at 2.5% to boost economic growth and the central bank sees possible future hikes as inflation is expected to rise and domestic demand picks up and AUDUSD dropped to lows of 1.0563, reversing earlier gains after fewer jobs were added than estimates. Earlier this morning, we had Japan release GDP report which saw the economy contracting 3.5%, more than the 3% drop estimated, underscoring the damage by the earthquake and tsunami which has halted factory production. BOJ Governor said that supply constraints are easing faster than expected as companies rush to repair facilities and the economy could expand in the second half as reconstruction takes place. The USDJPY traded in the range of 79.84 – 80.30. Meanwhile, the Aussie dropped after only 7,800 jobs were added against estimate of 25,000 jobs, full-time employment dropped 22,000 while unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.9%, damping expectations of the RBA to raise rates.  Today’s focus is entirely on the ECB where although interest rates are expected to remain unchanged at 1.25%, markets would be watching commentary by ECB President Trichet and looking towards ‘strong vigilance’ in this statement which would indicate possible future hikes and hawkish tone for the currency. With current expectations remaining strong for a July hike, any absence of commentary on hikes would be adverse for the currency as seen in the last meeting as debt-issues would take hold on the bearish market conditions. The EU/IMF/ECB released details of the bailout package for Greece where EUR40 Billion would be provided by EU/IMF and EUR30 Billion has been asked from private bondholders which saw a negative reaction on the EUR which dropped to 1.4550 levels yesterday. Apart from central bank rate decisions, we have UK trade balance, US trade balance, jobless claims, and Fed members Plosser and Yellen speaking on the economy and housing markets respectively.