Informes 09/09/2011

ECB Pauses in September, Sends Dovish Message The ECB left the main refinancing rate unchanged at 1.5%. While this had been widely anticipated, the accompanying statement turned out to be more dovish than the market forecast. The central bank revised lower growth forecasts and did not signal upside risks to inflation. The tone appeared that the central bank is ready for a rate cut should the economy deteriorate further. Read more...

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised 23:50 JPY GDP Q/Q Q2 F -0.50% -0.50% -0.30% 23:50 JPY GDP Deflator Y/Y Q2 F -2.20% -1.50% -2.20% 23:50 JPY Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y Aug 2.70% 2.90% 2.90% 2:00 CNY CPI Y/Y Aug 6.20% 6.20% 6.50% 2:00 CNY PPI Y/Y Aug 7.30% 7.20% 7.50% 5:00 JPY Household Confidence Aug 37 41.3 37 6:00 EUR German CPI M/M Aug F -0.10% -0.10% 6:00 EUR German CPI Y/Y Aug F 2.30% 2.30% 8:30 GBP PPI Input M/M Aug -1.50% 0.60% 8:30 GBP PPI Input Y/Y Aug 16.80% 18.50% 8:30 GBP PPI Output M/M Aug 0.10% 0.20% 8:30 GBP PPI Output Y/Y Aug 5.90% 5.90% 8:30 GBP PPI Output Core Y/Y Aug 3.40% 3.30% 8:30 GBP Visible Trade Balance (GBP) Jul -8.9B 11:00 CAD Net Change in Employment Aug 22.5K 7.1K 11:00 CAD Unemployment Rate Aug 7.30% 7.20% 12:15 CAD Housing Starts Aug 200.0K 205.1K 14:00 USD Wholesale Inventories Jul 0.80% 0.60%
Forex Trade Ideas
Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Look to sell higher Although the single currency has fallen again overnight to as low as 1.3873, loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 1.3850 and risk has increased for minor correction to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.3981), however, reckon the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.4080) would cap upside and bring another decline later. Read more... Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 76.55 Although the greenback has rebounded from 77.14 yesterday, as long as indicated resistance at 77.74 holds, further consolidation would take place and downside risk is seen for a test of support at 77.07-14 and break there would bring weakness to 76.72 but renewed buying interest should emerge around support area at 76.42-53 and bring another rise later. A sustained breach of said resistance at 77.74 would extend the rise from 75.94 record low for a stronger retracement of recent downtrend to resistance at 77.86 Read more... Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):  1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530  Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):  AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500
Orders and Options Watch
European Session: Orders and Options Watch EUR: The single currency tumbled again overnight on back of weakness in EUR/JPY due to risk aversion (DJI and Nikkei both down), stops below 1.3900 were triggered but bids from Asian sovereign names are noted at 1.3870 and more stops are reported below barrier at 1.3850. On the upside, offers are tipped at 1.3940-50 and further out at 1.3980-90 with stops building up above 1.4020. Today’s option expires include a big one at 1.4000 (300 mln) and 1.4060 (100 mln), both NY cut. Read more...
Suggested Readings
Fundamental Highlights Bernanke Still Will Not Commit To QE3, Obama Presents Jobs Plan Is The Swiss Franc Still A Safe Haven Currency? Trichet's Dovish Tone Put The Euro Under Pressure Asia Session: Eyes On G7 Daily Financial Market Outlook EURO Breaks 1.4000, Bernanke Nothing New Technical Highlights EURUSD - Cautiously Bearish Below 1.3969 Daily Technical Analysis The Daily Forecaster: EURJPY The Daily Wave Analysis Daily Forex Update: EUR/CHF