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Daily Report: Euro Stays Soft after EU Agreed Speeding Up Spain Bank Aids
Euro remains broadly soft even though EU finance ministers agreed to speed up the bailout for Spanish banks with EUR 30b to be ready for the end of this month. The agreement will be finalized on July 20 after getting approval of member states' parliament. Spain is expected to set up a separate company to manage the assets on the recapitalized banks. The maturity of loans to Spanish banks will average 12.5 years and be eventually taken over by ESM. In addition, Spain will be given an extra year, until 2014, to meet its deficit reduction targets. However, the details of a regional banking supervisory still need to be worked out and might only be completed by the end of the year. A focus today will be on how Spanish yield react to the news.
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 97.58; (P) 97.86; (R1) 98.24; More
Intraday bias in EUR/JPY remains on the downside for the moment. As noted before, corrective rise from there should have finished at 101.62 already. Deeper fall is expected to retest 95.64 first. Break will resume the whole decline from 114.43 and should target 61.8% projection of 111.43 to 95.64 from 101.62 at 91.86. On the upside, however, above 98.13 minor resistance will mix up near term outlook and turn bias neutral again.
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| Economic Indicators Update | 
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Orders and Options Watch
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European Session: Orders and Options Watch
EUR: Despite recovering to as high as 1.2324 in overnight New York trade, euro slipped this morning in part due to the release of weaker-than-expected China trade data and mixture of bids and stops at 1.2250-60 is now in focus, more stops are placed below 1.2220-25 but option defensive bids are reported further out at 1.2200-10 (with stops building up below barrier at 1.2200). On the upside, offers from various names remain at 1.2320-30 as well as 1.2350 (sizeable) with stops tipped above 1.2370 but fresh offers from funds are likely to emerge further out at 1.2400-10.
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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5590
Although cable retreated from intra-day high of 1.5535 and consolidation below this level would be seen initially, as long as support at 1.5461 (last week’s low) holds, near term upside risk remains for retracement to 1.5542-51 (current level of the Ichimoku cloud top and previous resistance) and possibly 1.5574 (previous support), however, renewed selling interests should emerge around 1.5592 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5722 to 1.5461), bring another decline later.
Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.2350
Although the single currency retreated after yesterday’s rebound to 1.2324, reckon downside would be limited to 1.2265-70 and further consolidation would be seen with mild upside bias for another bounce to said resistance, above there would bring retracement to 1.2350, however, renewed selling interest should emerge around there and bring another decline.
Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530 Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF
Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Fundamental Highlights
Technical Highlights
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