Analises para o dia 20 de outubro

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Posted: 20 Oct 2011 07:33 AM PDT
  • Discussion with Greece and private sector is ongoing
  • No divergence on IMF, EC and ECB on Greek debt sustainability
Posted: 20 Oct 2011 07:04 AM PDT
Philadelphia Fed:  Survey:  -9.4   Actual: 8.7    Prior: -17.5
Leading Indicators:   Survey:  0.2%   Actual:  0.2%   Prior: 0.3%
Existing Home Sales: Survey: 4.91M    Actual: 4.91M  Prior: 5.03M  
Existing Home Sales (MoM):  Survey: -2.3%   Actual: -3.0%   Prior: 7.7%  
Sep vs. Aug 2011Northeast:   0.790 vs 0.770
Midwest:  1.090 vs  1.100 
South:  1.890 vs 1.940
West:  1.140 vs 1.250
Posted: 20 Oct 2011 07:01 AM PDT
New Orders 7.8 vs -11.3
Employment lower at 1.4 vs 5.8
Prices Paid: 20 vs 23.2 last month
Shipments 13.6 vs -22.8 last monthPrices received -2.5 vs +0.9
EURUSD (Risk ON) moved higher on the inital reaction and has since moved back lower.
Levels to eye:
1.3758 is the close from yesterday (1.3757 is the days midpoint)
1.3738 is the 200 hour MA 
1.3781 is the 100 hour MA above
Posted: 20 Oct 2011 06:57 AM PDT
The forex markets seem to be unsettled today. There was talks that the summit might be postponed (from German news citing German officials). Those rumors were later denied from various sources  There was a rally on the denial but the move higher did not hold and the last half hour or so has been up and down in the pair.  This is likely to continue to be the “trend” for the day. As a result, my risk is increased which makes me more fearful, cautious and patient. 
The EURUSD choppy trading is also evident in the USDJPY. That pair got a boost on a think tank report that was favorable for the USDJPY, but it too is back down.
Posted: 20 Oct 2011 06:56 AM PDT
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Posted: 20 Oct 2011 06:31 AM PDT
So the EURUSD moves higher and is back above the 1.3737 level which is the 200  hour MA.  Other levels in play today include the 1.2758 which is the close from yesterday and the 100 hour MA at the 1.3781 level.
Expect the market to continue to be pushed around today.  There seems to be a lack of liquidity in the market with the uncertainty of the weekend. I am not feeling all that comfortable with the trading action.
Posted: 20 Oct 2011 06:25 AM PDT
There was a report out of a German news source that the German officials did not rule out postponing the EU summit scheduled for the 23rd. This has sent the EURUSD down on another leg lower.  The price is below the 200 hour MA now at the 1.3737 level.  The 61.8% of the days range also comes in at the 1.3737 level.  Traders will be watching the level now to see if the price can rebound. 

Posted: 20 Oct 2011 06:13 AM PDT
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Posted: 20 Oct 2011 06:07 AM PDT
EURUSD has moved back lower on the report
This report is from government and coalition sources according to Die Welt
Posted: 20 Oct 2011 05:59 AM PDT
Posted: 20 Oct 2011 05:50 AM PDT
The USDJPY moved higher on the back of a move above the 200 and 100 hour MAs and an unconfirmed report of a think tank report that is positive for the USDJPY.
The 200 hour MA has been a ceiling level for the most part over the last few days. That level comes in at the 76.86 level today.  The 100 hour MA comes in at the 76.90.  Breaking those levels triggered stops and the price spiked higher.  SO far, the price has peaked at the 77.08 level.
The 77.24 and 77.42-48 are the next targets for the pair. Look for close support at the 77.96 area now.

Posted: 20 Oct 2011 05:32 AM PDT
The EURUSD has moved below the 100 hour MA in early NY trade at the 1.3781 level. The close from yesterday came in at the 1.3758 level.  The 200 hour MA at the 1.37357 is the 61.8% of the move up from the low on Tuesday. The 200 hour MA is at the same level currently.
On the daily chart the 50% and the 38.2% level has been support and resistance for the pair.  Over the week, the range has been consolidating after the sharp trend move last week.  The high for the week has been 1.3913. The low has been 1.3652.  The 261 pip range. This is the lowest range since August 21st. Discounting that week, the lowest prior range was in April. So this implies a chance for an extension of the range.  So be aware of the possibility.
Posted: 20 Oct 2011 05:31 AM PDT
Posted: 20 Oct 2011 05:31 AM PDT
Jobless Claims:  Survey: 400K  Actual: 403K  Prior: 404K  Revised: 409K
Continuing Claims:  Survey: 3690K  Actual: 3719K  Prior: K  Revisad: 3694K
Posted: 20 Oct 2011 05:06 AM PDT
  • Used as a last result after shareholders, governments and private efforts fail
  • EFSF will buy bonds on secondary market. They can sell them back to the market, held to maturity, sold back to sovereign or used for repos with commercial banks for liquidity mgt
  • 90 to 100 billion needed to recapitalize banks
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