Hoje 13/12/2010 - Cdf's

TOCK INDICES SPI Bullish unless below 4682. The SPI continued to recover last week and now looks set to test its November highs of 4801 (on the March contract). First resistance is Friday’s high of 4772 which coincides with the high of December 7 at 4769. Taking the vertical distance of the correction (4837 – 4550) of 251 points and adding to 4801 gives a next major upside target at 5052.

A pullback this week is likely to find support at the lows of December 6 at 4682 followed by the highs of the basing pattern that signalled the end of the correction at 4623. Next support is then at the lows of the correction at 4550.

RES: 4769-72 4801 5052
SUP: 4682 4625 4550

S&P 500
Bullish unless below 1214.

Last week the S&P made decisive new highs in the uptrend that started in March 2009. The next key level is now the Fibonacci 62% retracement of all the losses made during the GFC – it is particularly important because the S&P has a habit of turning on 50% and 62% retracement levels. That level, which is found by deducting 666 from 1597, multiplying by 0.618 and adding to 666, is at 1241. A strong close above 1241 and the outlook remains bullish. Next resistance is then at 1276, which is the vertical distance of the recent correction (1224 – 1172) added to the November highs followed by round-number psychological resistance at 1300.

Even if it is eventually surpassed, we should expect some hesitation around 1241 given its significance. In the short-term the outlook is positive unless there is a move below Wednesday’s lows of 1214. Next support is then at the highs of November 19 at 1195 followed by the lows of the correction at 1165.

RES: 1241 1276 1300
SUP: 1214 1195 1165

COMMODITIES

Gold spot
Bearish unless above 1431.

Last week gold did indeed take on the previous all-time highs dating back to November at US$1425, dashing the prospect of a head and shoulders top. However an equally big problem remains. Gold was not able to close above the old highs, having reached highs of 1427 and 1431 intraday before selling off to lows of 1392 in the latter part of the week. That has created a potential double top pattern with an intervening low at 1329. A close below 1329 would confirm the pattern and give a minimum target at the vertical distance of the pattern deducted from the lows – a distance of 96 dollars lower. In the meantime there is support at the late November lows of 1367 following by the November 16 lows of 1355.

A recovery this week must close above 1425 to 1431 to change the outlook to bullish. Next resistance is then at 1450 and 1500.

RES: 1425-31 1450 1500
SUP: 1367 1355 1329

Crude Oil
Bullish unless below 83.59.

Never underestimate a spike top on crude. Last week such a pattern formed on Tuesday and it happened around the key level of US$90 – the 50% retracement of all the losses since the GFC struck. The immediate outlook for crude is for it to at least test the highs of November 29 at 85.90, but it could just as easily slip to the lows of November 30 at 83.55 or even the lows of November 24 at 80.97.

A reversal in crude is likely to see it meet resistance at the highs of the day prior to the spike at 89.76, followed by the spike high of 90.76, then the next important psychological hurdle of 100.00.

RES: 89.76 90.76 100.00
SUP: 85.90 83.55 80.97