Hoje 13/12/2010

FOREX MARKETS AUD/USD Bearish below .9752; bullish above .9967. Last week was dominated by profit taking below parity. However the losses were limited and the Aussie ended Friday with only a minor net move from Monday’s open. With the market stalled below 1.0000 and failing to attract selling interest of any size the immediate outlook is dependent on a break of the range: .9752 to .9967.

A move below last week’s low of .9752 would be a bearish signal with support at .9683, which is the open from two weeks ago, then .9537, the lows of December.

A move above last week's high of .9967 would be a bullish signal with first resistance at 1.0005 which is half the net losses from five weeks ago, then the multi-decade highs of 1.0184 reached in November.

RES: .9967 1.0005 1.0184
SUP: .9752 .9683 .9537

EUR/USD
Bearish below 1.3060; bullish above 1.3380.

Last week the euro failed above 1.3400 and then proceeded to post losses on a daily basis. Each daily decline was minor however and although negative momentum reinforces the bearish bias, a lack of net movement over the last three trading days countered the downside. In addition, price action near the 200-day moving average is likely to attract some buying interest. This leaves the outlook dependent on a break of 1.3060 to 1.3380.

A move below half the net gains from December 1 of 1.3060 would be a bearish signal. Targets would then be for losses to last month’s bottom of 1.2969, or even 1.2883, half the net rise from 13-weeks ago.

A move above last week’s open of 1.3380 would be a bullish signal with a first target at 1.3471, which is a 38% recovery of the fall from November’s top. Next resistance is then at 1.3626 which is the 50% retracement mark.

RES: 1.3380 1.3471 1.3626
SUP: 1.3060 1.2969 1.2883

GBP/USD
Bullish unless below 1.5655.

Last week sterling posted a second consecutive positive weekly performance. Initial losses and a further sell off Wednesday found fresh investor demand and marginally higher levels each day. This makes the immediate bias positive as long as the currency remains above 1.5655. The first upside target is 1.5892 which a recovery of half of the losses from November’s high, with a move beyond that point targeting 1.5989, a broader 62%, or even 1.6086 which is the three-week top.

A move below last week's low of 1.5655 would change the outlook to bearish. The market could then decline to the December 3 low of 1.5581 followed by the November lows of 1.5485.

RES: 1.5892 1.5989 1.6086
SUP 1.5655 1.5581 1.5485

USD/JPY
Bullish unless below 83.00.

Sentiment for the end of this quarter is continuing to improve after November recorded the first higher high in seven months. Bounces are no longer being sold off and bullish candle signals on both monthly and weekly activity are patterns of trading consistent with exhausted bear market momentum and the start of a new bullish bias. This was confirmed last week with the buying interest supporting the market after prices had corrected exactly 50% of November’s rally.

The outlook should stay positive while the yen is above 83.00 with first resistance at November’s highs of 84.42 to 85.00, then potentially either 85.60 or the high of September at 85.94.

Risk to this forecast would be selling back through Monday’s previous high at 83.00. First support would then be at last week’s lows of 82.32 then 81.00.

RES: 85.00 85.60 85.94
SUP: 83.00 82.32 81.00